Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 1/15/2010

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NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES ABOUND

1/15/2010

Negative Divergences Abound
by Carl Swenlin
January 15, 2010

While the S&P 500 had managed to squeeze slightly above the ascending wedge that has contained the index for several months, this week it dropped back below the support and it is currently challenging the bottom of the wedge. The wedge has not resolved decisively in either direction, and it is possible that there will be no clear resolution. By that I mean the wedge is so narrow that the price index could continue to drift higher, lower, or sideways to where it will have exited the wedge without a clear resolution. If so, we will ignore the wedge and look for something else to provide some clarity.

I am still of the opinion that we will see some kind of downside correction because of the abundance of negative divergences to be found on our indicator charts. The first is the gradually contracting volume seen on the chart below.

The next chart shows the three indicators of our OBV (On-Balance Volume) suite with divergences clearly marked.

Finally, we have the new highs and new lows chart. Again, you can see the negative divergence over the contraction of new highs; however, this chart gives us reason to believe that the internal problems may not be too serious. Note that there have been virtually no new lows for many months, and, without an expansion of new lows, all the negative divergences we are seeing probably have no long-term significance. For example, note that the contraction of new highs at the end of 2007 was accompanied by a considerable expansion of new lows that gave warning of much greater than normal weakness.

Bottom Line: The abundance of negative divergences keeps waving the caution flag for a correction; however, the complete lack of new lows indicates that we are only witnessing cyclical weakness during an ongoing bull market, not a major top.

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Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change.

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2009 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT

#9 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 129.36 Vs. SPX 123.45)
#8 Intermediate-Term Stocks (5 Years) (TD Index 147.81 Vs. SPX 92.01)

#18 Bond Timer (*TD Index: 87.7 Vs. Bonds 83.86)
#5 Bond Timer (10-Years) (*TD Index: 127.25 Vs. Bonds 127.51)

#9 Gold Timer (TD Index: 115.30 Vs. Gold 124.00)
#3 Gold Timer (3 Years) (TD Index: 181.56 Vs. Gold 169.92)
#3 Gold Timer (10 Years) (TD Index: 322.74 Vs. Gold 375.51)

#6 Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index 136.41 Vs. SPX 75.94)
#7 Long-Term Timer (3 Years) Stocks (TD Index 141.22 Vs. SPX 78.62)
#2 Long-Term Timer (5 Years) Stocks (TD Index 165.27 Vs. SPX 92.01
#5 Long-Term Timer (10 Years) Stocks (TD Index 162.51 Vs. SPX 75.90

2008 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT

#17 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 111.9 Vs. SPX 61.51)

#4 Bond Timer (*TD Index: 112.32 Vs. Bonds 118.26)

#5 Gold Timer (TD Index: 126.33 Vs. Gold 104.61)

#9 Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 132.35 Vs. SPX 63.69)
#2 Long-Term Timer (3 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 150.38 Vs. SPX 72.36)
#2 Long-Term Timer (5 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 168.82 Vs. SPX 81.23)
#3 Long-Term Timer (10 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 159.36 Vs. SPX 73.48)

2007 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT

#40 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 91.9 Vs. SPX 103.28)

#5 Bond Timer (TD Index: 105.85 Bonds 104.39)

#2 (Tied) Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 117.63 Vs. SPX 117.63)

2006 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT

#11 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 111.3 Vs. SPX 113.6)

#3 Bond Timer (TD Index: 112.32 Vs. Bonds 97.46)

2000 TIMER DIGEST GOLD TIMER of the YEAR

*All timers and the benchmark index are assigned a starting TD Index of 100 at the beginning of the year. The amount above or below the starting index indicates the percentage gain or loss for the year.

Beginning in 2006 we began using mechanical models -- the Trend Model for Bonds, Gold, and Long-Term Stocks, and the Thrust/Trend Model for Intermediate-Term Stocks. Prior to 2006 we used discretionary signals.

Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not indicate future results.

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BIO: Carl Swenlin is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports. Mr. Swenlin is a Member of the Market Technicians Association.

Caveat: Charts featured in the Chart Spotlight are intended as
examples of how to use technical analysis, not as trading recommendations.

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