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Earnings Confusion
by Carl Swenlin
March 12, 2010
The following is fairly typical of a question I have received dozens of times over the last few years:
QUESTION: Hi Carl, I have been watching your chart showing the history of the actual S&P 500 versus the expected value based on the price to earnings ratio. It shows that the s&p 500 has never ever been so overvalued compared the normal P/E range of 10 to 20, and that earnings remain low. In 2003 the earnings started to increase before the S&P 500 started up. This makes me very wary of the run-up over the past 12 months, despite the hype on CNBC. What is your opinion on this?
ANSWER: We have to work with the most recently finalized earnings, which is Q3 2009. Because of this Q4 2008, which had a loss of -$23.25, is still used in the calculation of twelve months trailing (TMT) earnings. This distorts the P/E, currently 91. Q4 2009 will be finalized by the end of this month -- 99% of S&P 500 companies have reported. At that point Q4 2008 will drop out of the equation, and earnings will be more normal again, giving us a P/E of about 22. Unfortunately, a P/E of 22 is still very overvalued and outside the normal range of 10 to 22. Here is a recent snapshot of earnings projections.
Click here to see the entire report.
Here is the chart showing the historical P/E range. The recent earings crash looks scary, but the range display should return to normal in a few weeks.
I am concerned about the consistent overvalue condition that has been the norm since the early 1990s, but it has persisted through two bull markets and two bear markets, demonstrating that investors just don't care about value. And the value range analysis we do, while an interesting curiosity, is not of much use for decision-making in the current environment. Follow the trend.
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Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
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2009 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#9 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 129.36 Vs. SPX 123.45)
#8 Intermediate-Term Stocks (5 Years) (TD Index 147.81 Vs. SPX 92.01)
#18 Bond Timer (*TD Index: 87.7 Vs. Bonds 83.86)
#5 Bond Timer (10-Years) (*TD Index: 127.25 Vs. Bonds 127.51)
#9 Gold Timer (TD Index: 115.30 Vs. Gold 124.00)
#3 Gold Timer (3 Years) (TD Index: 181.56 Vs. Gold 169.92)
#3 Gold Timer (10 Years) (TD Index: 322.74 Vs. Gold 375.51)
#6 Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index 136.41 Vs. SPX 75.94)
#7 Long-Term Timer (3 Years) Stocks (TD Index 141.22 Vs. SPX 78.62)
#2 Long-Term Timer (5 Years) Stocks (TD Index 165.27 Vs. SPX 92.01)
#5 Long-Term Timer (10 Years) Stocks (TD Index 162.51 Vs. SPX 75.90)
2008 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#17 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 111.9 Vs. SPX 61.51)
#4 Bond Timer (*TD Index: 112.32 Vs. Bonds 118.26)
#5 Gold Timer (TD Index: 126.33 Vs. Gold 104.61)
#9 Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 132.35 Vs. SPX 63.69)
#2 Long-Term Timer (3 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 150.38 Vs. SPX 72.36)
#2 Long-Term Timer (5 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 168.82 Vs. SPX 81.23)
#3 Long-Term Timer (10 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 159.36 Vs. SPX 73.48)
2007 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#40 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 91.9 Vs. SPX 103.28)
#5 Bond Timer (TD Index: 105.85 Bonds 104.39)
#2 (Tied) Long-Term Timer (2 Years) Stocks (TD Index: 117.63 Vs. SPX 117.63)
2006 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT
#11 Intermediate-Term Stocks (52-Weeks) (TD Index 111.3 Vs. SPX 113.6)
#3 Bond Timer (TD Index: 112.32 Vs. Bonds 97.46)
2000 TIMER DIGEST GOLD TIMER of the YEAR
*All timers and the benchmark index are assigned a starting TD Index of 100 at the beginning of the year. The amount above or below the starting index indicates the percentage gain or loss for the year.
Beginning in 2006 we began using mechanical models -- the Trend Model for Bonds, Gold, and Long-Term Stocks, and the Thrust/Trend Model for Intermediate-Term Stocks. Prior to 2006 we used discretionary signals.
Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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BIO: Carl Swenlin is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports. Mr. Swenlin is a Member of the Market Technicians Association.
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