May 22, 2013
Tim Ord, Editor
16928 Van Dorn Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
(402) 486-0362) firstname.lastname@example.org
For 30 to 90 days horizons for SPX: Sold long SPX on 4/22/13 at 1562.50 for
1.35% gain. Long 4/18/13 at 1541.61.
Monitoring purposes Gold: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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The bottom window is the equity Put/Call ratio which is updated from yesterday’s
chart. This chart goes back one year and 4 months and is a good representation
of what has happen in the past going back several years. When the Equity Put/Call
ratio falls near .55 or lower for four days or longer than usually the market
will at least take a break to its uptrend. We said yesterday in our report, “When
the Put/Call ratio is this low than call options counts are near double of
put options and is a good contrarian indicator. The last two examples came
near tops in the market that lasted a couple of month or longer. This condition
should stall the market short term.” So far the bullish percent index
for the NYSE has not produced a negative divergence and would suggest even
if a top is forming here tests of the recent high would be likely just to get
the bullish percent index to show a divergence. Today’s decline did not
produce a TRIN close above 2.00 (closing TRIN was .98) and suggests short term
decline is not done. A bullish down tick close of -506 was recorded today,
but also need the TRIN Close near 2.00 or above to get a bullish signal. We
are keeping our powder dry for now.
Above is the daily NYSE McClellan Summation index going back to late 2004.
Current reading on the McClellan Summation index is 1218.57, and shows that
the market is in a strong position and is not likely to have a strong decline
from here. However, the market could make tests of the current high later where
the NYSE McClellan Summation index makes lower highs and finally falls below
+500. The +500 level on the Summation index is where strong declines can begin
in the market, (blue vertical lines on the chart above show those instances).
If this short term decline continues and the TRIN closes above 2.00 and the
Ticks close below -300, a bullish setup will be triggered. Major support comes
in near 1600 range on the SPX which is where a trend line lies connecting the
highs of 2000 to 2007.
The sentiment indicators such as Commitment of Traders report, Hulbert Gold
sentiment, Public opinion and Rydex precious metals holds are all at extreme
and a condition that usually show up at major lows. To say a bottom is in
is when momentum turns up. The chart above is the monthly GDX chart. I consider
a bottom is complete when the monthly RSI and Slow Stochastics turn up. To
get that to happen on the chart above is at this month end (a week from this
Friday) GDX closes at 30 or above. Also on the chart above is an ABC pattern
down where leg A is equal to leg C. and leg B retraced 61.8% of leg A. This
bullish combination suggests GDX downside target has been met. Sentiment
has reached bullish levels for the GDX and now we need momentum to turn up.
Long NG at 5.14 on 10/8/12. Long GDX at 58.65 on 12/6/11. Sold SLV at 30.24
on 12/16/12 = gain 2.6%; Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GLD at 173.59
on 9/21/11. Long GDXJ average 29.75 on 4/27/12 Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11.
Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long KBX at 1.13
on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We
will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer
term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at
27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of
8.25. www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price
and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy on www.Amazon.com