May 7, 2008

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"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Sold SPX on 4/7/08 at 1372.49 for 1.5% gain and now flat.
Monitoring purposes XAU: LONG XAU on 12/18/07 at 162.05.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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Above is the weekly SPY dating back to late 2008. Last week SPY broke above the February 1 high (139.61) on lighter volume and implied a false break to the upside and implied at some point the market should reverse back down. A weekly close below the February 1 high (139.61) will trigger a sell signal on the Weekly charts. Therefore on Friday if the SPY close below 139.61 a sell signal will be triggered by that method. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has already triggered a sell signal on the weekly chart on last weeks close and was a “Heads Up” that the SPY may be next. We remain flat the SPX for now.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Long POWR at 13.70 on 12/14/07.

Today’s weak AD line may have turned down the Summation index and trigger a bearish signal. Above is the chart of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation index for the NYSE from last nights close and does not show today’s readings. However, “Weird Wally Wednesday” (in honor of Don Wolanchuk who first reported on this phenomenon) is today and “Weird Wally Wednesday (WWW)” predicts strong volatility on the Wednesday before option expiration week. Today’s price range matches that prediction. It’s seldom a triggered on WWW to follow through and in a lot of cases the market will reverse for a couple of days before the true trend begins. There is evidence that the market is making a top near current levels and if the market holds down into Friday and a weekly sell signal is triggered on the SPX, then we may take that signal. However, in a lot of cases after WWW move, the days following seems to be in opposite direction. We are staying neutral for now.
Gold Market:

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com. The theory behind this indicator “Public Opinion” is that when they reach a consensus of opinion, the public is usually wrong - they get too bullish after prices have risen, and too bearish after they have already fallen. This chart dates back to 2004 and shows a good history for picking lows in gold. We have updated this chart to last nights close. This indicator seems to do better at predicting bottoms than tops. Right now this indicator is in an area where previous important lows have formed in the past. If any strength in GDX shows up in the next day or two, this condition will most likely turn up the Summation index and in turn confirm the next rally phase. We will show what the Summation index is doing for GDX on tomorrows report. We remain bullish on the XAU on the bigger time frames and we are long the XAU from 12/18/07 at 162.05.
Sold PMU on 2/29/08 at 1.20, bought at .81 for gain of 48%. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We are long PLM at 2.77 on 1/22/08. Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

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