December 4, 2013
Tim Ord, Editor
16928 Van Dorn Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
(402) 486-0362. email@example.com
30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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The employment numbers come out 8:30 AM Eastern Friday and FOMC meeting is
December 17 & 18 and therefore there is a lot going on this month. We have
labeled the times of the Employment releases in red and FOMC meeting in blue
over the last Four and half months. The employment data did not appear to have
an impact on the SPY but the FOMC meetings appeared near the start of a consolidation
or a short term top. Therefore it appears that if the market rallies into an
FOMC meeting the market could stall. However this time around the market may
be near a low at the FOMC meeting. Yesterday the TRIN closed at 1.26 and the
Ticks closed at -357 and a bullish combination and predicts a low the same
day of the reading to as late as two days later. A high volume down day appeared
on 11/20 near the 1775 range on the SPX and most high volume lows are tested
at some point. Today the market decline and tested the gap level of 11/21 on
higher volume and suggests the gap does not have support and could move lower
short term and leaves the door open for the low of 11/20 to be tested. Market
doesn’t have to be down tomorrow but does suggests at some point market
will come back and test the 11/20 low. Market is getting a little messy here
but Santa Claus rally may not start until the FOMC meeting.
The Chart above is courtesy www.sentimentrader.com. This chart shows what
the Rydex trader is doing and right now they have 5.3 times the money in
long funds compared to the short funds. You can see from the chart above
the previous times the Rydex trader was fives times committed to the long
funds compared to the short funds. In each case dating back a year the
market was near a high. With the evidence from this chart it appears the
on the SPX is limited. Also Seasonality is important. The FOMC meeting
is December 17 and 18, which is Days 12 and 13 on the Seasonality S&P
500 chart. Market could be choppy going into the FOMC meeting and than
could start. We are Trying to keep out of the chop and fine the safe trade.
The top window is the monthly XAU/Gold ratio with its Bollinger band. In general
when the XAU/Gold ratio is rising than gold stocks are outperforming gold and
a bullish sign for both. When this ratio is falling than Gold is outperforming
gold stocks and a bearish sign for both. When this ratio breaks the upper Bollinger
band than this ratio has reached an extreme and due for a pull back along with
the XAU (labeled in blue). When this ratio breaks the lower Bollinger band
than an extreme has occurred to the downside and a rally is due (labeled in
Red). Since this ratio is on a monthly timeframe, only major signals are produced.
Back in June this ratio broke the lower Bollinger band and suggested a bottom
was forming. This ratio continued lower since than and in general the XAU has
moved sideways. On the XAU chart we have drawn a trend line connecting the
lows going back to the 2000 low and so far its holding on this trend line.
Also notice that the RSI of the XAU/Gold ratio is below 30 and shows a much
oversold condition. To signal a bottom is complete in gold and gold stocks
is for the monthly momentum to turn up on the XAU/Gold ratio which has not
happen yet. For now there is nothing to do but wait but there are bullish signs
Long GDX on 11/14/13 at 24.55 stopped at 23.63 for loss a 3.75% loss. Long
GDX on 10/15/13 at 23.69; stopped for gain of 4.3%.
Long NG at 5.14 on 10/8/12. Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long GDXJ average 29.75
on 4/27/12. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long
YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11;
stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85
on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position
in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head
much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08.
KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works,
visit www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price
and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy on www.Amazon.com