May 22, 2013

Tim Ord, Editor

16928 Van Dorn Street

Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com

(402) 486-0362) tim@ord-oracle.com
For 30 to 90 days horizons for SPX: Sold long SPX on 4/22/13 at 1562.50 for 1.35% gain. Long 4/18/13 at 1541.61.
Monitoring purposes Gold: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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The bottom window is the equity Put/Call ratio which is updated from yesterday’s chart. This chart goes back one year and 4 months and is a good representation of what has happen in the past going back several years. When the Equity Put/Call ratio falls near .55 or lower for four days or longer than usually the market will at least take a break to its uptrend. We said yesterday in our report, “When the Put/Call ratio is this low than call options counts are near double of put options and is a good contrarian indicator. The last two examples came near tops in the market that lasted a couple of month or longer. This condition should stall the market short term.” So far the bullish percent index for the NYSE has not produced a negative divergence and would suggest even if a top is forming here tests of the recent high would be likely just to get the bullish percent index to show a divergence. Today’s decline did not produce a TRIN close above 2.00 (closing TRIN was .98) and suggests short term decline is not done. A bullish down tick close of -506 was recorded today, but also need the TRIN Close near 2.00 or above to get a bullish signal. We are keeping our powder dry for now.

Above is the daily NYSE McClellan Summation index going back to late 2004. Current reading on the McClellan Summation index is 1218.57, and shows that the market is in a strong position and is not likely to have a strong decline from here. However, the market could make tests of the current high later where the NYSE McClellan Summation index makes lower highs and finally falls below +500. The +500 level on the Summation index is where strong declines can begin in the market, (blue vertical lines on the chart above show those instances). If this short term decline continues and the TRIN closes above 2.00 and the Ticks close below -300, a bullish setup will be triggered. Major support comes in near 1600 range on the SPX which is where a trend line lies connecting the highs of 2000 to 2007.

The sentiment indicators such as Commitment of Traders report, Hulbert Gold sentiment, Public opinion and Rydex precious metals holds are all at extreme and a condition that usually show up at major lows. To say a bottom is in is when momentum turns up. The chart above is the monthly GDX chart. I consider a bottom is complete when the monthly RSI and Slow Stochastics turn up. To get that to happen on the chart above is at this month end (a week from this Friday) GDX closes at 30 or above. Also on the chart above is an ABC pattern down where leg A is equal to leg C. and leg B retraced 61.8% of leg A. This bullish combination suggests GDX downside target has been met. Sentiment has reached bullish levels for the GDX and now we need momentum to turn up.
Long NG at 5.14 on 10/8/12. Long GDX at 58.65 on 12/6/11. Sold SLV at 30.24 on 12/16/12 = gain 2.6%; Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long GDXJ average 29.75 on 4/27/12 Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy on www.Amazon.com