Robust S&P 500 Faces Cycle Pressure in April
March 29, 2013
By Mike Paulenoff MPTrader.com
The Emini S&P 500 ended Q1 right at its high. The index blasted out of the starting gate on the first session of the new year ecstatic about the "resolution of the Fiscal Cliff" and has not looked back.
As long as the series of higher lows remains intact, so too will be the bull retain directional market control as the new quarter begins on Monday. Only a decline that breaks 1549.75 will trigger very preliminary indications that the uptrend is vulnerable to a correction.
Otherwise, the e-SPM is poised to claw its way higher, towards 1570/80 next.
From a cycle perspective, April could be a cruel month for the index, especially late in the month.
The source of any forthcoming cyclic downward pressure will come from the 38-42 day low-to-low cycle, which is hitting its peak during the first week of April, and from the much larger 23-25 week low-to-low cycle, which heads down into late-April, early May.
The confluence of these two overlapping cycles indicates that if the SPX registers an important downside reversal signal during the next two weeks, then the cycle position and the negative price action could combine for a nasty decline similar to the declines in late 2012 and mid 2011 amidst similar cyclic influence.
See charts illustrating the patterns and cycle work on the S&P 500 at https://www.mptrader.com/scharts/Chart-on-Emini-S-P-hour-and-SPX-Daily-with-Cycle-Work-201303292400.html .
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Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his trade alerts on ETFs and leading sector component stocks, along with index/sector analysis covering the eMini S&P, Gold & Oil, Treasuries, U.S. Dollar, international markets, and more.