Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (05/07/08)       
                  
      
www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific. 
                 
DOW                               - 206 on 1300 net declines   

NASDAQ COMP.           - 45 on 1200 net declines     

SHORT TERM TREND                           Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND          Bullish     

     We thought yesterday should have been down, but it was up instead.
Today seems to be a catch up for all the negatives of yesterday. Even
Fannie Mae, which did such a good job of fighting back on Tuesday lost
6% today. 
     I would anticipate a rebound on Thursday, but I am a bit concerned
that the volume picked up on today's decline. 
     On Tuesday, I saw an interview with Merrill Lynch technical analyst
Mary Ann Bartels on CNBC. She was making the point that hedge fund cash
positions were very high and that this should be very bullish from a
contrary opinion standpoint. 
     In 2002, before the major bottom, hedge funds had about $40 billion
in cash. Now they have about $100 billion. This should find its way into
the stock market at some point. 
     The dollar rallied and this pushed gold down, but it couldn't push
crude oil down. Neither could a larger than expected increase in crude
inventories.  Bonds managed a minor rally.  

 NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: 

      First quarter productivity rose 2.2%, larger than the expected
1.5%. Pending home sales dropped 1% in line with expectations. Crude oil
inventories rose 5.7 million barrels. On Thursday, we get initial claims
and wholesale inventories.
                              
     BOTTOM LINE: 

   Our intermediate term systems are on a buy. Mutual fund investors are
in a 100% invested position. 

    Short term ETF traders are in cash. Stay there for now.   
  
 OTHER MARKETS

We are on a sell for bonds as of April 25.                      

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of May 1.     
    

We are on a sell for gold as of April 29.                

We are on a buy for Crude oil as of May 5.             

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of
the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.  



STEPHEN TODD

A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

   Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock
market newsletter with an included nightly hotline. 

   Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following
publications: Barron's, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The
National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC,
Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW
in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto,
Ontario. 

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