Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday (07/01/09)

www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                 + 57 on 1500 net advances

NASDAQ COMP.             			+ 11 on 1000 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND                    Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND          	Bullish

The first day of the month and quarter tends to be higher, but the rally
was held back by news that was mainly bad starting with the ADP
employment report which shows that the U.S. is still hemorrhaging jobs.
Speaking of jobs, the non-farm payrolls will be released tomorrow
morning at 8:30 EST and this is the most widely watched economic
statistic of all. Market participants were probably nervous about what
this will bring. If it's a big surprise, it will probably govern trading
on Thursday. We've been bearish on gold since June 1st (black arrow),
but the yellow metal is trying to move above the close of June 29th
(white arrow). If it succeeds, we'll move back to the bullish camp.


Gold had a decent move higher and crude oil dropped after starting the
session higher. Bonds were flat and the dollar and yen both moved down.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.

Short-term traders are in cash. Stay there on Thursday. We are zeroing
in on some shorting methodologies. Stay tuned.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The ADP employment report showed that 473,000
jobs were lost in June. The consensus was for a loss of 395,000. The ISM
index for June was 44.8, slightly lower than the expected reading of
44.9. Anything below 50 shows a contracting manufacturing base.
Construction spending dropped 0.9%. The consensus was for a loss of
0.6%. Pending home sales were up 0.1%. The expectation was for a flat
reading. On Friday we get initial claims, factory orders and the dreaded
non-farm payrolls.

OTHER MARKETS

We're on a buy for bonds as of June 11.

We're on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the EURO as of June 5.

We're on a sell for gold as of June 3.

We're on buy for crude oil as of June 29.

We are long term neutral for all major world markets, including those of
the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.

STEPHEN TODD

A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market
newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following
publications: Barron's, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The
National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC,
Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW
in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto,
Ontario.

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