|
[ Glossary menu ]
This is one of the most important indicators
for measuring participation. The 200-day moving average is a long-term smoothing
of price movement, and a stock's price in relation to this moving average
is a good indication of its long-term trend. For example, when the price
index moves below the 200-day moving average, we can assume the long-term
trend is down until the price index moves back above the 200-day moving
average.
There are no automatic assumptions that can
be made about this index. For example, just because 80% of stocks are above
their 200-day moving average, there is no guarantee that a downside reversal
can't happen. In fact, once the index has moved to an extreme end of its
range, it's a good idea to be alert for a change in direction, because the
market improves until it is as good as it can get, then it starts to deteriorate.
Conversely, as soon as things are as bad as they can get, they start
improving.
The most important aspect of this indicator
is the trend. When the market is trending upward this index should be also
be trending up. A trend divergence indicates that fewer and fewer stocks
are in sync with the price trend and that a price reversal is likely.
|