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The Swenlin Price Momentum Model (PMM) is applied to all the stocks,
mutual funds, and market indexes we follow. It is strictly mechanical
and is always set on BUY or SELL. For a new signal to be generated,
price must: (1) reverse at least 10% from the extreme price for the
current signal; and (2) pass through the 200-day exponential moving
average (200- EMA). (For a discussion of how to calculate moving
averages, CLICK HERE.)
The 10% price move and 200-EMA crossover criteria were arbitrary
and were chosen so that the model would only respond to fairly large
moves in the market, and thus give primarily long-term signals. When
I first invented the model I tested both criteria separately beginning
in 1980. The 10% model generated about 25 signals and the 200-EMA
model generated about 55 signals. In both cases, this was entirely
too much whipsaw and, of course, not at all profitable.
Then I had the idea to combine the two screens into one model.
This reduced the number of signals to nine (9) and all but one was
profitable. When tested over a period from 1920 through the present
on a single market, the results were not as good because the market
will ultimately present a set of conditions to defeat any mechanical
model. However, when we back tested it against a wide range of market
sectors, the results (see below) are quite impressive.
One of the strengths of the model is that it doesn't let you miss
major moves up or down unless the move is extremely quick. As it
so happens, the model did take us out of the market two days prior
to the 1987 Crash, but I must allow that it might just as easily
have missed the move by a day had actual market conditions been slightly
different. Specifically, the model will not miss large market moves
that extend over long periods. This is important because you don't
want to be in the market during severe bear markets or out of the
market during extended bull markets.
Another strength is that the model doesn't let you be wrong for
very long. While there is occasionally some overshoot, it will normally
change directions after a maximum 10% loss.
A major weakness is that, even with the double screen, the model
is still subject to whipsaw when market volatility is high and it
is moving in a narrow trading range of about 10% or less. In other
words, price must move at least 10% in the direction of the signal
before a signal can break even.
Another weakness is that, if the price moves too far too fast,
the 200-EMA can be left far behind and a lot of profit can be lost
before the 200-EMA screen can be tripped for a reversing signal.
You can see what I mean by looking at the difference between the "Signal
High % P/L" column and the "Signal Final % P/L" column. The first
shows the maximum profit embraced by the signal, and the other shows
the amount of profit the signal actually captured.
Performance is best in a trending market -- that is when the market
moves the same general direction over extended periods of time. It
is also my opinion that the higher the price, the less subject to
whipsaw the model is -- it's just easier to get a 10% move when the
index is, say, 500 than it is when it is 3000.
The Price Momentum Model is an excellent timing tool for any security
or market index that has a history of relatively low volatility,
mutual funds in particular. It is simple to use, and has a high reliability
for being in the market during major up moves, and for being out
of the market during major declines. It should minimize worry, hand
wringing, and sleeplessness.
Below is a discussion of back testing we did covering most of the
1990s. Since then we have experienced one of the worst bear markets
in a century. While we don't have actual test results for that period,
I personally observed PMM performance in our Fidelity Select, Rydex,
ProFunds, and Spider Web (EFT) Tracker newsletters, and it was consistent
with the back testing results we have.
SUMMARY OF SWENLIN PRICE MOMENTUM MODEL BACK TESTING ON FIDELITY
SELECT FUNDS
Using the Swenlin Price Momentum Model we back tested data on 32
of the Fidelity Select Mutual Funds from the beginning of January
1990 to the end of January 1998 -- a little over seven (7) years.
We have included SELL Signals for information only, to show how
much of a decline may be missed as well as to illustrate the futility
of investing against the primary market trend. Since these mutual
funds cannot be shorted, the SELL Signal results are not part of
our signal performance calculations.
The results are as follows:
Total BUY Signals: 165
Total Profitable: 105 Signals lasting 625 days w/average profit of 56.0%
Total at a Loss: 60 Signals lasting 98 days w/average loss of -7.0%
Average one BUY Signal per fund every 15 months.
The Average BUY Signal lasted 433 days w/average profit of 33.1%
Total SELL Signals: 144
Total Profitable: 18 lasting 199 days w/average profit of 6.7%
Total at a Loss: 126 lasting 75 days w/average loss of -7.2%
The Average SELL Signal lasted 92 days w/average loss of -5.4%
TEST PARAMETERS
Model requires a beginning signal assumption, so we assumed that all
funds tested would begin on a BUY Signal. Open and closing prices for
each signal were assumed to be the closing NAV on the day the signal
was generated. The effects of transaction fees, taxes, or compounding
were not considered in the calculations. Some of the signals were still
open at the end of the back test period and may not ultimately close
as high as they were at the end of the test.
The data used were adjusted for distributions to insure a consistent
relationship for determining gains and losses. We freely admit that
changing these assumptions and parameters could substantially change
the results. We do not defend them. We made some quick choices so
that we could get some idea of how the Model performs.
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE TESTING
We reached certain conclusions from this back testing, as well
as from our observations of the performance of the Momentum Model
in real time over a period of several years.
- The Model does very well with securities
and market indexes that trend in a relatively orderly fashion.
Volatility tends to result in loss-producing whipsaws. Consequently,
the Model works best on market indexes and mutual funds where the
volatility of individual stocks is attenuated by being averaged
in with a large group of stocks. This is even the case with sector
groups like technology, computers, etc. Performance of the Model
on market indexes and mutual funds is approximately 50% to 70%
better than on individual stocks.
- The back testing was performed over
a period when the broad market was in a secular bull market. As
a result, the SELL Signals were routinely unprofitable, while BUY
Signals were routinely profitable. We fully expect that this result
will be quite the opposite when the market enters a secular bear
phase.
- It is our observation based on the
historical charts of these funds that virtually no sector can be
expected to perform well in the face of a bear market. There will,
of course, exceptions, and our Model will let profitable positions
run even in the event of a bear market.
- Our overall conclusion is that following
the Momentum Model BUY Signals during a bull market (going to cash
during SELL Signals) should keep one in the market when a position
is performing well, and take one out of the position when the fund
(sector) experiences a serious correction. This should allow for
profitable exposure when warranted, and substantial reduction of
risk.
- CAVEAT: We cannot guarantee that
following this strategy will result in future profits or protect
from future loss. It is entirely possible that substantially different
market conditions will sabotage the mechanical model, so it is
imperative that you understand how it works and what its weaknesses
and strengths are. Models are great for screening candidates, but
a real human brain must be responsible for ultimately putting actual
money at risk.
BACK TESTING RESULTS
Below are the individual signals resulting
from the back testing. We have listed the BUY Signals first, since
they are the most relevant. Next we list the SELL Signals, and, finally,
all signals shown in the sequence they were actually generated. In
this last group, please note how the more volatile sectors funds
experience periods of unprofitable whipsaw.
We show two results, the highest profit
(or least loss) and the "Last" profit (loss) at the time the position
was closed. This demonstrates in many cases how judicious use of
charts and other analysis could allow exiting at a much higher profit
than the Model captures on a mechanical basis.
BUY SIGNALS SORTED BY FUND BY SIGNAL DATE
Start End High Last
Name SIGNAL Date Date Days P/L P/L
Air Transprt BUY 10/16/90 04/07/92 539 68.1% 46.3%
Air Transprt BUY 11/30/92 03/31/94 487 42.1% 25.8%
Air Transprt BUY 08/26/94 09/28/94 33 0.7% -9.6%
Air Transprt BUY 02/11/95 07/03/96 508 63.8% 47.3%
Air Transprt BUY 11/18/96 02/27/97 101 5.9% -4.8%
Air Transprt BUY 04/09/97 01/30/98 296 36.1% 36.1%
Amer Gold BUY 10/16/90 01/23/91 99 10.0% -1.9%
Amer Gold BUY 06/06/91 08/22/91 77 6.5% -4.7%
Amer Gold BUY 10/18/91 12/16/91 59 1.3% -9.2%
Amer Gold BUY 01/16/92 03/06/92 50 0.8% -9.5%
Amer Gold BUY 06/08/92 08/12/92 65 11.7% -1.3%
Amer Gold BUY 09/15/92 11/09/92 55 2.6% -10.9%
Amer Gold BUY 02/09/93 09/10/93 214 62.2% 28.1%
Amer Gold BUY 09/21/93 04/14/94 205 27.3% 9.0%
Amer Gold BUY 05/23/94 08/11/94 80 -1.9% -10.2%
Amer Gold BUY 09/06/94 11/04/94 59 7.0% -4.5%
Amer Gold BUY 03/28/95 10/17/95 203 17.1% 4.0%
Amer Gold BUY 11/10/95 07/23/96 255 44.7% 19.9%
Amer Gold BUY 08/20/96 11/29/96 101 3.3% -9.8%
Amer Gold BUY 02/20/97 03/25/97 33 2.8% -8.0%
Amer Gold BUY 09/30/97 10/24/97 24 0.4% -18.6%
Automotive BUY 10/16/90 10/01/92 716 104.9% 82.3%
Automotive BUY 11/12/92 03/31/94 505 52.9% 36.7%
Automotive BUY 05/16/95 12/22/97 950 52.2% 36.6%
Biotech BUY 10/16/90 03/26/92 527 136.1% 89.2%
Biotech BUY 06/03/92 02/12/93 254 8.9% -3.8%
Biotech BUY 05/20/93 03/28/94 313 14.0% 1.4%
Biotech BUY 03/23/95 07/09/96 473 38.4% 24.0%
Biotech BUY 09/25/96 04/01/97 188 8.9% -2.9%
Biotech BUY 05/13/97 01/30/98 262 28.3% 21.1%
Brokerage BUY 10/16/90 04/07/92 539 115.8% 79.0%
Brokerage BUY 07/31/92 03/25/94 603 70.3% 51.2%
Brokerage BUY 07/15/94 11/18/94 126 -0.5% -11.5%
Brokerage BUY 04/11/95 01/30/98 1024 149.0% 143.3%
Chemical BUY 10/16/90 01/30/98 2663 291.7% 278.7%
Computers BUY 10/16/90 06/24/91 251 92.2% 54.1%
Computers BUY 07/19/91 10/24/91 97 6.7% -4.6%
Computers BUY 12/26/91 04/27/92 123 21.0% 2.7%
Computers BUY 05/08/92 06/16/92 39 -0.8% -11.8%
Computers BUY 08/03/92 08/21/92 18 -3.5% -10.1%
Computers BUY 09/11/92 06/20/94 648 79.6% 50.4%
Computers BUY 08/10/94 12/16/95 493 89.8% 53.6%
Computers BUY 02/01/96 03/22/96 49 6.7% -5.0%
Computers BUY 04/24/96 07/10/96 77 3.9% -9.1%
Computers BUY 08/07/96 03/17/97 222 37.2% 16.5%
Computers BUY 05/02/97 10/24/97 175 37.6% 9.1%
Computers BUY 11/17/97 12/10/97 23 0.3% -12.4%
Const/Housng BUY 10/16/90 08/21/92 675 94.6% 73.4%
Const/Housng BUY 11/12/92 04/15/94 520 44.7% 29.0%
Const/Housng BUY 02/24/95 01/30/98 1070 81.7% 81.7%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 10/16/90 06/03/92 596 35.6% 22.0%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 12/08/92 07/15/96 1315 101.2% 80.9%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 09/26/96 12/17/97 447 47.7% 25.0%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 01/27/98 01/30/98 3 2.6% 2.6%
Electronics BUY 10/16/90 07/02/91 259 70.2% 39.5%
Electronics BUY 08/14/91 10/02/91 49 1.9% -10.4%
Electronics BUY 10/16/91 11/22/91 37 4.1% -6.5%
Electronics BUY 12/30/91 06/16/92 169 21.6% 0.3%
Electronics BUY 08/03/92 06/20/94 687 87.0% 62.1%
Electronics BUY 08/16/94 12/13/95 484 97.0% 57.6%
Electronics BUY 01/24/96 06/25/96 152 11.2% -0.4%
Electronics BUY 08/02/96 10/24/97 448 87.5% 46.8%
Electronics BUY 11/04/97 11/11/97 7 1.0% -9.4%
Energy BUY 10/16/90 01/08/91 84 2.1% -8.6%
Energy BUY 07/31/91 12/06/91 128 4.4% -6.4%
Energy BUY 05/22/92 11/24/93 552 27.2% 13.5%
Energy BUY 01/06/94 03/31/94 84 2.8% -8.3%
Energy BUY 04/25/94 01/10/95 260 3.3% -7.2%
Energy BUY 04/20/95 02/26/97 677 47.4% 30.8%
Energy BUY 05/12/97 11/28/97 200 23.8% 7.3%
Energy Svcs BUY 10/16/90 11/19/90 34 5.2% -6.3%
Energy Svcs BUY 02/06/91 06/11/91 125 9.7% -1.5%
Energy Svcs BUY 05/22/92 07/07/92 46 3.3% -8.2%
Energy Svcs BUY 08/07/92 12/07/92 122 7.6% -3.9%
Energy Svcs BUY 02/03/93 11/17/93 288 36.1% 21.8%
Energy Svcs BUY 05/26/94 12/07/94 195 8.8% -2.2%
Energy Svcs BUY 03/08/95 10/24/95 230 22.4% 9.5%
Energy Svcs BUY 12/01/95 12/19/97 748 191.0% 119.9%
Energy Svcs BUY 12/31/97 01/05/98 5 -1.9% -11.1%
Envir Svcs BUY 10/16/90 06/21/91 248 37.3% 21.3%
Envir Svcs BUY 12/31/91 03/27/92 87 10.8% -0.4%
Envir Svcs BUY 11/05/92 03/30/94 511 11.0% -0.5%
Envir Svcs BUY 03/23/95 07/12/96 476 40.1% 24.0%
Envir Svcs BUY 09/24/96 04/24/97 212 8.0% -3.4%
Envir Svcs BUY 05/30/97 01/08/98 223 19.8% 6.4%
Financl Svcs BUY 10/16/90 11/16/94 1493 239.1% 204.4%
Financl Svcs BUY 02/06/95 01/30/98 1088 121.5% 121.5%
Food & Ag BUY 10/16/90 01/30/98 2663 209.4% 202.6%
Health Care BUY 10/16/90 04/01/92 533 106.2% 72.5%
Health Care BUY 09/14/92 10/01/92 17 -0.3% -10.6%
Health Care BUY 11/27/92 01/18/93 52 0.6% -9.5%
Health Care BUY 09/02/93 01/30/98 1611 166.8% 166.8%
Home Finance BUY 10/16/90 11/03/94 1480 349.5% 303.6%
Home Finance BUY 02/03/95 01/30/98 1091 154.6% 144.3%
Indust Equip BUY 10/16/90 07/01/92 624 56.7% 40.6%
Indust Equip BUY 12/08/92 04/19/94 498 56.9% 39.9%
Indust Equip BUY 08/25/94 11/11/97 1173 106.0% 79.8%
Indust Matls BUY 10/16/90 10/01/92 716 69.3% 51.7%
Indust Matls BUY 12/01/92 11/22/94 722 36.3% 21.9%
Indust Matls BUY 02/15/95 10/11/95 238 16.4% 4.5%
Indust Matls BUY 11/22/95 07/15/96 235 5.7% -5.0%
Indust Matls BUY 10/03/96 12/10/97 433 17.5% 4.7%
Insurance BUY 10/16/90 11/18/93 1130 128.3% 104.7%
Insurance BUY 09/08/94 01/30/98 1239 113.8% 113.5%
Leisure BUY 10/16/90 04/18/94 1281 148.0% 122.4%
Leisure BUY 02/11/95 01/30/98 1084 85.2% 85.2%
Medical Del BUY 10/16/90 04/06/92 538 133.8% 93.4%
Medical Del BUY 07/16/92 09/24/92 70 4.0% -10.0%
Medical Del BUY 11/11/92 02/12/93 93 3.8% -10.0%
Medical Del BUY 07/14/93 07/10/96 1092 91.5% 70.9%
Medical Del BUY 09/04/96 10/24/97 415 28.1% 12.7%
Medical Del BUY 11/05/97 01/30/98 86 1.0% -1.5%
Multimedia BUY 10/16/90 06/21/91 248 48.6% 33.5%
Multimedia BUY 09/20/91 03/31/94 924 91.7% 71.3%
Multimedia BUY 08/18/94 07/12/96 693 43.9% 27.4%
Multimedia BUY 09/26/96 04/18/97 204 1.0% -9.9%
Multimedia BUY 05/20/97 01/30/98 255 30.8% 30.8%
Paper/Forest BUY 10/16/90 12/10/91 420 59.6% 42.9%
Paper/Forest BUY 12/30/91 06/17/92 170 17.0% 4.5%
Paper/Forest BUY 10/29/92 03/28/94 516 37.0% 21.2%
Paper/Forest BUY 06/13/94 11/21/94 161 18.9% 3.4%
Paper/Forest BUY 01/09/95 12/16/95 341 25.1% 11.6%
Paper/Forest BUY 04/16/96 07/23/96 98 1.2% -9.4%
Paper/Forest BUY 09/17/96 10/24/97 402 27.3% 13.9%
Paper/Forest BUY 01/29/98 01/30/98 1 1.4% 1.4%
Prec Metals BUY 10/16/90 01/23/91 99 8.5% -2.4%
Prec Metals BUY 06/03/91 08/21/91 79 12.0% -0.9%
Prec Metals BUY 10/21/91 11/01/91 11 0.7% -10.9%
Prec Metals BUY 11/19/91 12/19/91 30 4.9% -5.7%
Prec Metals BUY 01/20/92 02/21/92 32 -0.6% -11.1%
Prec Metals BUY 06/15/92 08/11/92 57 1.6% -8.9%
Prec Metals BUY 02/10/93 09/07/93 210 68.8% 28.8%
Prec Metals BUY 09/21/93 04/08/94 199 34.4% 9.6%
Prec Metals BUY 05/23/94 11/22/94 183 20.0% 3.9%
Prec Metals BUY 03/31/95 10/19/95 202 9.5% -1.9%
Prec Metals BUY 11/10/95 06/26/96 228 28.8% 12.2%
Prec Metals BUY 02/20/97 03/25/97 33 2.5% -8.8%
Reg Banks BUY 10/16/90 11/03/93 1115 230.2% 196.9%
Reg Banks BUY 01/31/94 11/18/94 291 6.5% -4.3%
Reg Banks BUY 03/30/95 01/30/98 1036 125.3% 119.6%
Retailing BUY 10/16/90 06/17/92 610 125.9% 101.6%
Retailing BUY 10/16/92 07/12/96 1365 61.4% 41.3%
Retailing BUY 08/14/96 01/30/98 534 47.7% 47.5%
Softwr/Compt BUY 10/16/90 11/25/91 405 94.4% 69.0%
Softwr/Compt BUY 12/27/91 06/16/92 172 23.0% 7.6%
Softwr/Compt BUY 07/29/92 03/29/94 609 56.6% 40.7%
Softwr/Compt BUY 08/26/94 01/08/96 500 51.2% 35.1%
Softwr/Compt BUY 02/09/96 07/11/96 152 10.6% -0.6%
Softwr/Compt BUY 09/13/96 03/18/97 186 13.9% 1.0%
Softwr/Compt BUY 05/02/97 10/24/97 175 23.7% 8.2%
Softwr/Compt BUY 11/20/97 12/11/97 21 2.3% -10.7%
Softwr/Compt BUY 01/29/98 01/30/98 1 3.1% 3.1%
Technology BUY 10/16/90 04/07/92 539 129.9% 97.8%
Technology BUY 09/14/92 04/15/94 579 56.5% 36.5%
Technology BUY 08/16/94 12/16/95 487 59.9% 38.9%
Technology BUY 02/05/96 07/05/96 150 5.7% -5.1%
Technology BUY 09/13/96 03/27/97 195 20.5% 8.3%
Technology BUY 05/02/97 10/24/97 175 31.1% 3.7%
Technology BUY 11/04/97 11/11/97 7 0.8% -10.9%
Telecomm BUY 10/16/90 03/29/94 1261 132.0% 105.4%
Telecomm BUY 09/15/94 04/24/97 951 32.4% 18.4%
Telecomm BUY 05/05/97 01/30/98 270 35.4% 35.4%
Transport BUY 10/16/90 01/30/98 2663 379.3% 352.7%
Utilities BUY 10/16/90 03/29/94 1261 64.8% 47.6%
Utilities BUY 06/22/95 01/30/98 952 67.6% 67.6%
Average 433 49.1% 33.1%
Total BUY Signals: 165 Signals averaging 433 days w/average profit of 33.1%
Total Profitable: 105 Signals averaging 625 days w/average profit of 56.0%
Total at a Loss: 60 Signals averaging 98 days w/average loss of -7.0%
Average BUY Signal per fund per year = 0.7
SELL SIGNALS SORTED BY FUND BY SIGNAL DATE
Start End High Last
Name SIGNAL Date Date Days P/L P/L
Air Transprt SELL 04/08/92 11/27/92 233 6.4% -3.0%
Air Transprt SELL 04/04/94 08/25/94 143 7.1% -2.5%
Air Transprt SELL 09/29/94 02/09/95 133 9.2% -0.9%
Air Transprt SELL 07/05/96 11/15/96 133 15.7% 6.1%
Air Transprt SELL 02/28/97 04/08/97 39 -1.0% -10.1%
Amer Gold SELL 01/24/91 06/05/91 132 5.3% -9.8%
Amer Gold SELL 08/23/91 10/17/91 55 7.2% -4.2%
Amer Gold SELL 12/17/91 01/15/92 29 0.4% -12.3%
Amer Gold SELL 03/09/92 06/05/92 88 10.0% -1.4%
Amer Gold SELL 08/13/92 09/14/92 32 -2.1% -10.8%
Amer Gold SELL 11/10/92 02/08/93 90 3.9% -7.8%
Amer Gold SELL 09/13/93 09/20/93 7 -1.5% -10.9%
Amer Gold SELL 04/15/94 05/20/94 35 5.3% -5.0%
Amer Gold SELL 08/12/94 09/02/94 21 0.5% -10.3%
Amer Gold SELL 11/07/94 03/27/95 140 16.6% 5.8%
Amer Gold SELL 10/18/95 11/09/95 22 6.6% -3.9%
Amer Gold SELL 07/24/96 08/19/96 26 0.5% -9.7%
Amer Gold SELL 12/02/96 02/19/97 79 4.5% -8.1%
Amer Gold SELL 03/26/97 09/29/97 187 23.0% 7.3%
Amer Gold SELL 10/27/97 01/30/98 95 29.9% 12.7%
Automotive SELL 10/02/92 11/11/92 40 3.0% -6.9%
Automotive SELL 04/04/94 05/15/95 406 12.0% 3.1%
Automotive SELL 12/23/97 01/30/98 38 1.7% -5.1%
Biotech SELL 03/27/92 06/02/92 67 13.9% 1.1%
Biotech SELL 02/16/93 05/19/93 92 11.0% -0.5%
Biotech SELL 03/29/94 03/22/95 358 9.2% 0.0%
Biotech SELL 07/10/96 09/24/96 76 4.7% -5.2%
Biotech SELL 04/02/97 05/12/97 40 3.8% -5.9%
Brokerage SELL 04/08/92 07/30/92 113 5.7% -4.9%
Brokerage SELL 03/28/94 07/14/94 108 6.5% -3.2%
Brokerage SELL 11/21/94 04/10/95 140 3.1% -6.8%
Computers SELL 06/25/91 07/18/91 23 0.3% -10.0%
Computers SELL 10/25/91 12/24/91 60 4.4% -6.0%
Computers SELL 04/28/92 05/07/92 9 -0.6% -10.3%
Computers SELL 06/17/92 07/31/92 44 6.8% -4.3%
Computers SELL 08/24/92 09/10/92 17 -1.2% -10.8%
Computers SELL 06/21/94 08/09/94 49 1.4% -8.9%
Computers SELL 12/18/95 01/31/96 44 4.1% -5.7%
Computers SELL 03/25/96 04/23/96 29 0.1% -11.2%
Computers SELL 07/11/96 08/06/96 26 4.5% -5.6%
Computers SELL 03/18/97 05/01/97 44 3.6% -10.0%
Computers SELL 10/27/97 11/14/97 18 4.1% -5.5%
Computers SELL 12/11/97 01/30/98 50 9.2% -8.2%
Const/Housng SELL 08/24/92 11/11/92 79 0.3% -10.2%
Const/Housng SELL 04/18/94 02/23/95 311 13.2% 4.4%
Defnc/Aerosp SELL 06/04/92 12/07/92 186 4.7% -4.8%
Defnc/Aerosp SELL 07/16/96 09/25/96 71 0.3% -10.0%
Defnc/Aerosp SELL 12/18/97 01/26/98 39 2.8% -7.1%
Electronics SELL 07/03/91 08/13/91 41 -0.5% -10.2%
Electronics SELL 10/03/91 10/15/91 12 1.4% -9.3%
Electronics SELL 11/25/91 12/27/91 32 -0.2% -12.0%
Electronics SELL 06/17/92 07/31/92 44 3.8% -6.5%
Electronics SELL 06/21/94 08/15/94 55 0.7% -9.4%
Electronics SELL 12/14/95 01/23/96 40 4.2% -7.3%
Electronics SELL 06/26/96 08/01/96 36 7.3% -3.1%
Electronics SELL 10/27/97 11/03/97 7 -2.9% -10.8%
Electronics SELL 11/12/97 01/30/98 79 9.8% -0.3%
Energy SELL 01/09/91 07/30/91 202 4.7% -6.7%
Energy SELL 12/09/91 05/21/92 164 5.3% -4.6%
Energy SELL 11/26/93 01/05/94 40 5.2% -4.8%
Energy SELL 04/04/94 04/22/94 18 -2.5% -10.1%
Energy SELL 01/11/95 04/19/95 98 0.2% -10.6%
Energy SELL 02/27/97 05/09/97 71 1.9% -9.1%
Energy SELL 12/01/97 01/30/98 60 8.3% 2.5%
Energy Svcs SELL 11/20/90 02/05/91 77 9.0% -5.5%
Energy Svcs SELL 06/12/91 05/21/92 344 28.6% 17.9%
Energy Svcs SELL 07/08/92 08/06/92 29 -0.5% -10.2%
Energy Svcs SELL 12/08/92 02/02/93 56 4.4% -5.7%
Energy Svcs SELL 11/18/93 05/25/94 188 14.4% 4.9%
Energy Svcs SELL 12/08/94 03/07/95 89 -0.1% -10.3%
Energy Svcs SELL 10/25/95 11/30/95 36 4.2% -5.7%
Energy Svcs SELL 12/22/97 12/30/97 8 3.3% -10.0%
Energy Svcs SELL 01/06/98 01/30/98 24 11.7% 3.4%
Envir Svcs SELL 06/24/91 12/30/91 189 7.6% -1.8%
Envir Svcs SELL 03/30/92 11/04/92 219 13.5% 4.1%
Envir Svcs SELL 03/31/94 03/22/95 356 10.6% 1.5%
Envir Svcs SELL 07/15/96 09/23/96 70 3.5% -6.2%
Envir Svcs SELL 04/25/97 05/29/97 34 -0.5% -10.2%
Envir Svcs SELL 01/09/98 01/30/98 21 0.5% -0.6%
Financl Svcs SELL 11/17/94 02/03/95 78 3.4% -6.3%
Health Care SELL 04/02/92 09/11/92 162 8.5% -1.0%
Health Care SELL 10/02/92 11/25/92 54 1.2% -8.9%
Health Care SELL 01/19/93 09/01/93 225 11.9% 1.6%
Home Finance SELL 11/04/94 02/02/95 90 7.0% -2.8%
Indust Equip SELL 07/02/92 12/07/92 158 5.1% -4.7%
Indust Equip SELL 04/20/94 08/24/94 126 3.5% -6.4%
Indust Equip SELL 11/12/97 01/30/98 79 4.2% -2.1%
Indust Matls SELL 10/02/92 11/30/92 59 2.6% -7.2%
Indust Matls SELL 11/23/94 02/14/95 83 -0.6% -10.3%
Indust Matls SELL 10/12/95 11/21/95 40 4.3% -7.2%
Indust Matls SELL 07/16/96 10/02/96 78 0.2% -9.9%
Indust Matls SELL 12/11/97 01/30/98 50 5.3% -4.2%
Insurance SELL 11/19/93 09/07/94 292 5.4% -4.3%
Leisure SELL 04/19/94 02/09/95 296 2.1% -7.7%
Medical Del SELL 04/07/92 07/15/92 99 10.7% 0.0%
Medical Del SELL 09/25/92 11/10/92 46 5.4% -8.2%
Medical Del SELL 02/16/93 07/13/93 147 10.8% -1.3%
Medical Del SELL 07/11/96 09/03/96 54 2.3% -7.6%
Medical Del SELL 10/27/97 11/04/97 8 -5.0% -10.2%
Multimedia SELL 06/24/91 09/19/91 87 0.8% -10.4%
Multimedia SELL 04/04/94 08/17/94 135 1.9% -8.3%
Multimedia SELL 07/15/96 09/25/96 72 2.6% -7.5%
Multimedia SELL 04/21/97 05/19/97 28 -0.3% -11.0%
Paper/Forest SELL 12/11/91 12/27/91 16 0.0% -10.0%
Paper/Forest SELL 06/18/92 10/28/92 132 6.9% -2.9%
Paper/Forest SELL 03/29/94 06/10/94 73 5.7% -4.5%
Paper/Forest SELL 11/22/94 01/06/95 45 0.9% -9.6%
Paper/Forest SELL 12/18/95 04/15/96 118 -0.2% -10.1%
Paper/Forest SELL 07/24/96 09/16/96 54 -0.5% -10.0%
Paper/Forest SELL 10/27/97 01/28/98 93 8.2% -1.7%
Prec Metals SELL 01/24/91 05/31/91 127 2.6% -11.4%
Prec Metals SELL 08/22/91 10/18/91 57 5.1% -5.2%
Prec Metals SELL 11/04/91 11/18/91 14 -6.2% -10.4%
Prec Metals SELL 12/20/91 01/17/92 28 -0.5% -11.6%
Prec Metals SELL 02/24/92 06/12/92 109 10.0% -1.1%
Prec Metals SELL 08/12/92 02/09/93 181 17.4% -0.1%
Prec Metals SELL 09/08/93 09/20/93 12 2.9% -10.0%
Prec Metals SELL 04/11/94 05/20/94 39 1.1% -9.6%
Prec Metals SELL 11/23/94 03/30/95 127 14.9% 2.6%
Prec Metals SELL 10/20/95 11/09/95 20 5.2% -4.9%
Prec Metals SELL 06/27/96 02/19/97 237 13.3% 1.9%
Prec Metals SELL 03/26/97 01/30/98 310 51.0% 37.6%
Reg Banks SELL 11/04/93 01/28/94 85 1.2% -8.9%
Reg Banks SELL 11/21/94 03/29/95 128 1.4% -8.9%
Retailing SELL 06/18/92 10/15/92 119 1.3% -9.2%
Retailing SELL 07/15/96 08/13/96 29 1.5% -9.0%
Softwr/Compt SELL 11/26/91 12/26/91 30 0.9% -9.7%
Softwr/Compt SELL 06/17/92 07/28/92 41 5.2% -6.0%
Softwr/Compt SELL 03/30/94 08/25/94 148 15.4% 2.3%
Softwr/Compt SELL 01/09/96 02/08/96 30 1.5% -8.4%
Softwr/Compt SELL 07/12/96 09/12/96 62 3.5% -8.1%
Softwr/Compt SELL 03/19/97 05/01/97 43 1.6% -11.7%
Softwr/Compt SELL 10/27/97 11/19/97 23 -2.1% -10.3%
Softwr/Compt SELL 12/12/97 01/28/98 47 1.8% -8.3%
Technology SELL 04/08/92 09/11/92 156 6.8% -3.3%
Technology SELL 04/18/94 08/15/94 119 5.0% -4.7%
Technology SELL 12/18/95 02/02/96 46 3.1% -8.5%
Technology SELL 07/08/96 09/12/96 66 8.9% -2.3%
Technology SELL 03/31/97 05/01/97 31 1.8% -10.7%
Technology SELL 10/27/97 11/03/97 7 -3.4% -10.7%
Technology SELL 11/12/97 01/30/98 79 5.8% -9.0%
Telecomm SELL 03/30/94 09/14/94 168 1.1% -9.4%
Telecomm SELL 04/25/97 05/02/97 7 -1.0% -10.6%
Utilities SELL 03/30/94 06/21/95 448 2.0% -8.0%
Average 92 5.1% -5.4%
Total SELL Signals: 144
Total Profitable: 18 lasting 199 days w/average profit of 6.7%
Total at a Loss: 126 lasting 75 days w/average loss of -7.2%
BUY and SELL SIGNALS SORTED by FUND by SIGNAL DATE
Start End High Last
Name SIGNAL Date Date Days P/L P/L
Air Transprt BUY 10/16/90 04/07/92 539 68.1% 46.3%
Air Transprt SELL 04/08/92 11/27/92 233 6.4% -3.0%
Air Transprt BUY 11/30/92 03/31/94 487 42.1% 25.8%
Air Transprt SELL 04/04/94 08/25/94 143 7.1% -2.5%
Air Transprt BUY 08/26/94 09/28/94 33 0.7% -9.6%
Air Transprt SELL 09/29/94 02/09/95 133 9.2% -0.9%
Air Transprt BUY 02/11/95 07/03/96 508 63.8% 47.3%
Air Transprt SELL 07/05/96 11/15/96 133 15.7% 6.1%
Air Transprt BUY 11/18/96 02/27/97 101 5.9% -4.8%
Air Transprt SELL 02/28/97 04/08/97 39 -1.0% -10.1%
Air Transprt BUY 04/09/97 01/30/98 296 36.1% 36.1%
Amer Gold BUY 10/16/90 01/23/91 99 10.0% -1.9%
Amer Gold SELL 01/24/91 06/05/91 132 5.3% -9.8%
Amer Gold BUY 06/06/91 08/22/91 77 6.5% -4.7%
Amer Gold SELL 08/23/91 10/17/91 55 7.2% -4.2%
Amer Gold BUY 10/18/91 12/16/91 59 1.3% -9.2%
Amer Gold SELL 12/17/91 01/15/92 29 0.4% -12.3%
Amer Gold BUY 01/16/92 03/06/92 50 0.8% -9.5%
Amer Gold SELL 03/09/92 06/05/92 88 10.0% -1.4%
Amer Gold BUY 06/08/92 08/12/92 65 11.7% -1.3%
Amer Gold SELL 08/13/92 09/14/92 32 -2.1% -10.8%
Amer Gold BUY 09/15/92 11/09/92 55 2.6% -10.9%
Amer Gold SELL 11/10/92 02/08/93 90 3.9% -7.8%
Amer Gold BUY 02/09/93 09/10/93 214 62.2% 28.1%
Amer Gold SELL 09/13/93 09/20/93 7 -1.5% -10.9%
Amer Gold BUY 09/21/93 04/14/94 205 27.3% 9.0%
Amer Gold SELL 04/15/94 05/20/94 35 5.3% -5.0%
Amer Gold BUY 05/23/94 08/11/94 80 -1.9% -10.2%
Amer Gold SELL 08/12/94 09/02/94 21 0.5% -10.3%
Amer Gold BUY 09/06/94 11/04/94 59 7.0% -4.5%
Amer Gold SELL 11/07/94 03/27/95 140 16.6% 5.8%
Amer Gold BUY 03/28/95 10/17/95 203 17.1% 4.0%
Amer Gold SELL 10/18/95 11/09/95 22 6.6% -3.9%
Amer Gold BUY 11/10/95 07/23/96 255 44.7% 19.9%
Amer Gold SELL 07/24/96 08/19/96 26 0.5% -9.7%
Amer Gold BUY 08/20/96 11/29/96 101 3.3% -9.8%
Amer Gold SELL 12/02/96 02/19/97 79 4.5% -8.1%
Amer Gold BUY 02/20/97 03/25/97 33 2.8% -8.0%
Amer Gold SELL 03/26/97 09/29/97 187 23.0% 7.3%
Amer Gold BUY 09/30/97 10/24/97 24 0.4% -18.6%
Amer Gold SELL 10/27/97 01/30/98 95 29.9% 12.7%
Automotive BUY 10/16/90 10/01/92 716 104.9% 82.3%
Automotive SELL 10/02/92 11/11/92 40 3.0% -6.9%
Automotive BUY 11/12/92 03/31/94 505 52.9% 36.7%
Automotive SELL 04/04/94 05/15/95 406 12.0% 3.1%
Automotive BUY 05/16/95 12/22/97 950 52.2% 36.6%
Automotive SELL 12/23/97 01/30/98 38 1.7% -5.1%
Biotech BUY 10/16/90 03/26/92 527 136.1% 89.2%
Biotech SELL 03/27/92 06/02/92 67 13.9% 1.1%
Biotech BUY 06/03/92 02/12/93 254 8.9% -3.8%
Biotech SELL 02/16/93 05/19/93 92 11.0% -0.5%
Biotech BUY 05/20/93 03/28/94 313 14.0% 1.4%
Biotech SELL 03/29/94 03/22/95 358 9.2% 0.0%
Biotech BUY 03/23/95 07/09/96 473 38.4% 24.0%
Biotech SELL 07/10/96 09/24/96 76 4.7% -5.2%
Biotech BUY 09/25/96 04/01/97 188 8.9% -2.9%
Biotech SELL 04/02/97 05/12/97 40 3.8% -5.9%
Biotech BUY 05/13/97 01/30/98 262 28.3% 21.1%
Brokerage BUY 10/16/90 04/07/92 539 115.8% 79.0%
Brokerage SELL 04/08/92 07/30/92 113 5.7% -4.9%
Brokerage BUY 07/31/92 03/25/94 603 70.3% 51.2%
Brokerage SELL 03/28/94 07/14/94 108 6.5% -3.2%
Brokerage BUY 07/15/94 11/18/94 126 -0.5% -11.5%
Brokerage SELL 11/21/94 04/10/95 140 3.1% -6.8%
Brokerage BUY 04/11/95 01/30/98 1024 149.0% 143.3%
Chemical BUY 10/16/90 01/30/98 2663 291.7% 278.7%
Computers BUY 10/16/90 06/24/91 251 92.2% 54.1%
Computers SELL 06/25/91 07/18/91 23 0.3% -10.0%
Computers BUY 07/19/91 10/24/91 97 6.7% -4.6%
Computers SELL 10/25/91 12/24/91 60 4.4% -6.0%
Computers BUY 12/26/91 04/27/92 123 21.0% 2.7%
Computers SELL 04/28/92 05/07/92 9 -0.6% -10.3%
Computers BUY 05/08/92 06/16/92 39 -0.8% -11.8%
Computers SELL 06/17/92 07/31/92 44 6.8% -4.3%
Computers BUY 08/03/92 08/21/92 18 -3.5% -10.1%
Computers SELL 08/24/92 09/10/92 17 -1.2% -10.8%
Computers BUY 09/11/92 06/20/94 648 79.6% 50.4%
Computers SELL 06/21/94 08/09/94 49 1.4% -8.9%
Computers BUY 08/10/94 12/16/95 493 89.8% 53.6%
Computers SELL 12/18/95 01/31/96 44 4.1% -5.7%
Computers BUY 02/01/96 03/22/96 49 6.7% -5.0%
Computers SELL 03/25/96 04/23/96 29 0.1% -11.2%
Computers BUY 04/24/96 07/10/96 77 3.9% -9.1%
Computers SELL 07/11/96 08/06/96 26 4.5% -5.6%
Computers BUY 08/07/96 03/17/97 222 37.2% 16.5%
Computers SELL 03/18/97 05/01/97 44 3.6% -10.0%
Computers BUY 05/02/97 10/24/97 175 37.6% 9.1%
Computers SELL 10/27/97 11/14/97 18 4.1% -5.5%
Computers BUY 11/17/97 12/10/97 23 0.3% -12.4%
Computers SELL 12/11/97 01/30/98 50 9.2% -8.2%
Const/Housng BUY 10/16/90 08/21/92 675 94.6% 73.4%
Const/Housng SELL 08/24/92 11/11/92 79 0.3% -10.2%
Const/Housng BUY 11/12/92 04/15/94 520 44.7% 29.0%
Const/Housng SELL 04/18/94 02/23/95 311 13.2% 4.4%
Const/Housng BUY 02/24/95 01/30/98 1070 81.7% 81.7%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 10/16/90 06/03/92 596 35.6% 22.0%
Defnc/Aerosp SELL 06/04/92 12/07/92 186 4.7% -4.8%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 12/08/92 07/15/96 1315 101.2% 80.9%
Defnc/Aerosp SELL 07/16/96 09/25/96 71 0.3% -10.0%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 09/26/96 12/17/97 447 47.7% 25.0%
Defnc/Aerosp SELL 12/18/97 01/26/98 39 2.8% -7.1%
Defnc/Aerosp BUY 01/27/98 01/30/98 3 2.6% 2.6%
Electronics BUY 10/16/90 07/02/91 259 70.2% 39.5%
Electronics SELL 07/03/91 08/13/91 41 -0.5% -10.2%
Electronics BUY 08/14/91 10/02/91 49 1.9% -10.4%
Electronics SELL 10/03/91 10/15/91 12 1.4% -9.3%
Electronics BUY 10/16/91 11/22/91 37 4.1% -6.5%
Electronics SELL 11/25/91 12/27/91 32 -0.2% -12.0%
Electronics BUY 12/30/91 06/16/92 169 21.6% 0.3%
Electronics SELL 06/17/92 07/31/92 44 3.8% -6.5%
Electronics BUY 08/03/92 06/20/94 687 87.0% 62.1%
Electronics SELL 06/21/94 08/15/94 55 0.7% -9.4%
Electronics BUY 08/16/94 12/13/95 484 97.0% 57.6%
Electronics SELL 12/14/95 01/23/96 40 4.2% -7.3%
Electronics BUY 01/24/96 06/25/96 152 11.2% -0.4%
Electronics SELL 06/26/96 08/01/96 36 7.3% -3.1%
Electronics BUY 08/02/96 10/24/97 448 87.5% 46.8%
Electronics SELL 10/27/97 11/03/97 7 -2.9% -10.8%
Electronics BUY 11/04/97 11/11/97 7 1.0% -9.4%
Electronics SELL 11/12/97 01/30/98 79 9.8% -0.3%
Energy BUY 10/16/90 01/08/91 84 2.1% -8.6%
Energy SELL 01/09/91 07/30/91 202 4.7% -6.7%
Energy BUY 07/31/91 12/06/91 128 4.4% -6.4%
Energy SELL 12/09/91 05/21/92 164 5.3% -4.6%
Energy BUY 05/22/92 11/24/93 552 27.2% 13.5%
Energy SELL 11/26/93 01/05/94 40 5.2% -4.8%
Energy BUY 01/06/94 03/31/94 84 2.8% -8.3%
Energy SELL 04/04/94 04/22/94 18 -2.5% -10.1%
Energy BUY 04/25/94 01/10/95 260 3.3% -7.2%
Energy SELL 01/11/95 04/19/95 98 0.2% -10.6%
Energy BUY 04/20/95 02/26/97 677 47.4% 30.8%
Energy SELL 02/27/97 05/09/97 71 1.9% -9.1%
Energy BUY 05/12/97 11/28/97 200 23.8% 7.3%
Energy SELL 12/01/97 01/30/98 60 8.3% 2.5%
Energy Svcs BUY 10/16/90 11/19/90 34 5.2% -6.3%
Energy Svcs SELL 11/20/90 02/05/91 77 9.0% -5.5%
Energy Svcs BUY 02/06/91 06/11/91 125 9.7% -1.5%
Energy Svcs SELL 06/12/91 05/21/92 344 28.6% 17.9%
Energy Svcs BUY 05/22/92 07/07/92 46 3.3% -8.2%
Energy Svcs SELL 07/08/92 08/06/92 29 -0.5% -10.2%
Energy Svcs BUY 08/07/92 12/07/92 122 7.6% -3.9%
Energy Svcs SELL 12/08/92 02/02/93 56 4.4% -5.7%
Energy Svcs BUY 02/03/93 11/17/93 288 36.1% 21.8%
Energy Svcs SELL 11/18/93 05/25/94 188 14.4% 4.9%
Energy Svcs BUY 05/26/94 12/07/94 195 8.8% -2.2%
Energy Svcs SELL 12/08/94 03/07/95 89 -0.1% -10.3%
Energy Svcs BUY 03/08/95 10/24/95 230 22.4% 9.5%
Energy Svcs SELL 10/25/95 11/30/95 36 4.2% -5.7%
Energy Svcs BUY 12/01/95 12/19/97 748 191.0% 119.9%
Energy Svcs SELL 12/22/97 12/30/97 8 3.3% -10.0%
Energy Svcs BUY 12/31/97 01/05/98 5 -1.9% -11.1%
Energy Svcs SELL 01/06/98 01/30/98 24 11.7% 3.4%
Envir Svcs BUY 10/16/90 06/21/91 248 37.3% 21.3%
Envir Svcs SELL 06/24/91 12/30/91 189 7.6% -1.8%
Envir Svcs BUY 12/31/91 03/27/92 87 10.8% -0.4%
Envir Svcs SELL 03/30/92 11/04/92 219 13.5% 4.1%
Envir Svcs BUY 11/05/92 03/30/94 511 11.0% -0.5%
Envir Svcs SELL 03/31/94 03/22/95 356 10.6% 1.5%
Envir Svcs BUY 03/23/95 07/12/96 476 40.1% 24.0%
Envir Svcs SELL 07/15/96 09/23/96 70 3.5% -6.2%
Envir Svcs BUY 09/24/96 04/24/97 212 8.0% -3.4%
Envir Svcs SELL 04/25/97 05/29/97 34 -0.5% -10.2%
Envir Svcs BUY 05/30/97 01/08/98 223 19.8% 6.4%
Envir Svcs SELL 01/09/98 01/30/98 21 0.5% -0.6%
Financl Svcs BUY 10/16/90 11/16/94 1493 239.1% 204.4%
Financl Svcs SELL 11/17/94 02/03/95 78 3.4% -6.3%
Financl Svcs BUY 02/06/95 01/30/98 1088 121.5% 121.5%
Food & Ag BUY 10/16/90 01/30/98 2663 209.4% 202.6%
Health Care BUY 10/16/90 04/01/92 533 106.2% 72.5%
Health Care SELL 04/02/92 09/11/92 162 8.5% -1.0%
Health Care BUY 09/14/92 10/01/92 17 -0.3% -10.6%
Health Care SELL 10/02/92 11/25/92 54 1.2% -8.9%
Health Care BUY 11/27/92 01/18/93 52 0.6% -9.5%
Health Care SELL 01/19/93 09/01/93 225 11.9% 1.6%
Health Care BUY 09/02/93 01/30/98 1611 166.8% 166.8%
Home Finance BUY 10/16/90 11/03/94 1480 349.5% 303.6%
Home Finance SELL 11/04/94 02/02/95 90 7.0% -2.8%
Home Finance BUY 02/03/95 01/30/98 1091 154.6% 144.3%
Indust Equip BUY 10/16/90 07/01/92 624 56.7% 40.6%
Indust Equip SELL 07/02/92 12/07/92 158 5.1% -4.7%
Indust Equip BUY 12/08/92 04/19/94 498 56.9% 39.9%
Indust Equip SELL 04/20/94 08/24/94 126 3.5% -6.4%
Indust Equip BUY 08/25/94 11/11/97 1173 106.0% 79.8%
Indust Equip SELL 11/12/97 01/30/98 79 4.2% -2.1%
Indust Matls BUY 10/16/90 10/01/92 716 69.3% 51.7%
Indust Matls SELL 10/02/92 11/30/92 59 2.6% -7.2%
Indust Matls BUY 12/01/92 11/22/94 722 36.3% 21.9%
Indust Matls SELL 11/23/94 02/14/95 83 -0.6% -10.3%
Indust Matls BUY 02/15/95 10/11/95 238 16.4% 4.5%
Indust Matls SELL 10/12/95 11/21/95 40 4.3% -7.2%
Indust Matls BUY 11/22/95 07/15/96 235 5.7% -5.0%
Indust Matls SELL 07/16/96 10/02/96 78 0.2% -9.9%
Indust Matls BUY 10/03/96 12/10/97 433 17.5% 4.7%
Indust Matls SELL 12/11/97 01/30/98 50 5.3% -4.2%
Insurance BUY 10/16/90 11/18/93 1130 128.3% 104.7%
Insurance SELL 11/19/93 09/07/94 292 5.4% -4.3%
Insurance BUY 09/08/94 01/30/98 1239 113.8% 113.5%
Leisure BUY 10/16/90 04/18/94 1281 148.0% 122.4%
Leisure SELL 04/19/94 02/09/95 296 2.1% -7.7%
Leisure BUY 02/11/95 01/30/98 1084 85.2% 85.2%
Medical Del BUY 10/16/90 04/06/92 538 133.8% 93.4%
Medical Del SELL 04/07/92 07/15/92 99 10.7% 0.0%
Medical Del BUY 07/16/92 09/24/92 70 4.0% -10.0%
Medical Del SELL 09/25/92 11/10/92 46 5.4% -8.2%
Medical Del BUY 11/11/92 02/12/93 93 3.8% -10.0%
Medical Del SELL 02/16/93 07/13/93 147 10.8% -1.3%
Medical Del BUY 07/14/93 07/10/96 1092 91.5% 70.9%
Medical Del SELL 07/11/96 09/03/96 54 2.3% -7.6%
Medical Del BUY 09/04/96 10/24/97 415 28.1% 12.7%
Medical Del SELL 10/27/97 11/04/97 8 -5.0% -10.2%
Medical Del BUY 11/05/97 01/30/98 86 1.0% -1.5%
Multimedia BUY 10/16/90 06/21/91 248 48.6% 33.5%
Multimedia SELL 06/24/91 09/19/91 87 0.8% -10.4%
Multimedia BUY 09/20/91 03/31/94 924 91.7% 71.3%
Multimedia SELL 04/04/94 08/17/94 135 1.9% -8.3%
Multimedia BUY 08/18/94 07/12/96 693 43.9% 27.4%
Multimedia SELL 07/15/96 09/25/96 72 2.6% -7.5%
Multimedia BUY 09/26/96 04/18/97 204 1.0% -9.9%
Multimedia SELL 04/21/97 05/19/97 28 -0.3% -11.0%
Multimedia BUY 05/20/97 01/30/98 255 30.8% 30.8%
Paper/Forest BUY 10/16/90 12/10/91 420 59.6% 42.9%
Paper/Forest SELL 12/11/91 12/27/91 16 0.0% -10.0%
Paper/Forest BUY 12/30/91 06/17/92 170 17.0% 4.5%
Paper/Forest SELL 06/18/92 10/28/92 132 6.9% -2.9%
Paper/Forest BUY 10/29/92 03/28/94 516 37.0% 21.2%
Paper/Forest SELL 03/29/94 06/10/94 73 5.7% -4.5%
Paper/Forest BUY 06/13/94 11/21/94 161 18.9% 3.4%
Paper/Forest SELL 11/22/94 01/06/95 45 0.9% -9.6%
Paper/Forest BUY 01/09/95 12/16/95 341 25.1% 11.6%
Paper/Forest SELL 12/18/95 04/15/96 118 -0.2% -10.1%
Paper/Forest BUY 04/16/96 07/23/96 98 1.2% -9.4%
Paper/Forest SELL 07/24/96 09/16/96 54 -0.5% -10.0%
Paper/Forest BUY 09/17/96 10/24/97 402 27.3% 13.9%
Paper/Forest SELL 10/27/97 01/28/98 93 8.2% -1.7%
Paper/Forest BUY 01/29/98 01/30/98 1 1.4% 1.4%
Prec Metals BUY 10/16/90 01/23/91 99 8.5% -2.4%
Prec Metals SELL 01/24/91 05/31/91 127 2.6% -11.4%
Prec Metals BUY 06/03/91 08/21/91 79 12.0% -0.9%
Prec Metals SELL 08/22/91 10/18/91 57 5.1% -5.2%
Prec Metals BUY 10/21/91 11/01/91 11 0.7% -10.9%
Prec Metals SELL 11/04/91 11/18/91 14 -6.2% -10.4%
Prec Metals BUY 11/19/91 12/19/91 30 4.9% -5.7%
Prec Metals SELL 12/20/91 01/17/92 28 -0.5% -11.6%
Prec Metals BUY 01/20/92 02/21/92 32 -0.6% -11.1%
Prec Metals SELL 02/24/92 06/12/92 109 10.0% -1.1%
Prec Metals BUY 06/15/92 08/11/92 57 1.6% -8.9%
Prec Metals SELL 08/12/92 02/09/93 181 17.4% -0.1%
Prec Metals BUY 02/10/93 09/07/93 210 68.8% 28.8%
Prec Metals SELL 09/08/93 09/20/93 12 2.9% -10.0%
Prec Metals BUY 09/21/93 04/08/94 199 34.4% 9.6%
Prec Metals SELL 04/11/94 05/20/94 39 1.1% -9.6%
Prec Metals BUY 05/23/94 11/22/94 183 20.0% 3.9%
Prec Metals SELL 11/23/94 03/30/95 127 14.9% 2.6%
Prec Metals BUY 03/31/95 10/19/95 202 9.5% -1.9%
Prec Metals SELL 10/20/95 11/09/95 20 5.2% -4.9%
Prec Metals BUY 11/10/95 06/26/96 228 28.8% 12.2%
Prec Metals SELL 06/27/96 02/19/97 237 13.3% 1.9%
Prec Metals BUY 02/20/97 03/25/97 33 2.5% -8.8%
Prec Metals SELL 03/26/97 01/30/98 310 51.0% 37.6%
Reg Banks BUY 10/16/90 11/03/93 1115 230.2% 196.9%
Reg Banks SELL 11/04/93 01/28/94 85 1.2% -8.9%
Reg Banks BUY 01/31/94 11/18/94 291 6.5% -4.3%
Reg Banks SELL 11/21/94 03/29/95 128 1.4% -8.9%
Reg Banks BUY 03/30/95 01/30/98 1036 125.3% 119.6%
Retailing BUY 10/16/90 06/17/92 610 125.9% 101.6%
Retailing SELL 06/18/92 10/15/92 119 1.3% -9.2%
Retailing BUY 10/16/92 07/12/96 1365 61.4% 41.3%
Retailing SELL 07/15/96 08/13/96 29 1.5% -9.0%
Retailing BUY 08/14/96 01/30/98 534 47.7% 47.5%
Softwr/Compt BUY 10/16/90 11/25/91 405 94.4% 69.0%
Softwr/Compt SELL 11/26/91 12/26/91 30 0.9% -9.7%
Softwr/Compt BUY 12/27/91 06/16/92 172 23.0% 7.6%
Softwr/Compt SELL 06/17/92 07/28/92 41 5.2% -6.0%
Softwr/Compt BUY 07/29/92 03/29/94 609 56.6% 40.7%
Softwr/Compt SELL 03/30/94 08/25/94 148 15.4% 2.3%
Softwr/Compt BUY 08/26/94 01/08/96 500 51.2% 35.1%
Softwr/Compt SELL 01/09/96 02/08/96 30 1.5% -8.4%
Softwr/Compt BUY 02/09/96 07/11/96 152 10.6% -0.6%
Softwr/Compt SELL 07/12/96 09/12/96 62 3.5% -8.1%
Softwr/Compt BUY 09/13/96 03/18/97 186 13.9% 1.0%
Softwr/Compt SELL 03/19/97 05/01/97 43 1.6% -11.7%
Softwr/Compt BUY 05/02/97 10/24/97 175 23.7% 8.2%
Softwr/Compt SELL 10/27/97 11/19/97 23 -2.1% -10.3%
Softwr/Compt BUY 11/20/97 12/11/97 21 2.3% -10.7%
Softwr/Compt SELL 12/12/97 01/28/98 47 1.8% -8.3%
Softwr/Compt BUY 01/29/98 01/30/98 1 3.1% 3.1%
Technology BUY 10/16/90 04/07/92 539 129.9% 97.8%
Technology SELL 04/08/92 09/11/92 156 6.8% -3.3%
Technology BUY 09/14/92 04/15/94 579 56.5% 36.5%
Technology SELL 04/18/94 08/15/94 119 5.0% -4.7%
Technology BUY 08/16/94 12/16/95 487 59.9% 38.9%
Technology SELL 12/18/95 02/02/96 46 3.1% -8.5%
Technology BUY 02/05/96 07/05/96 150 5.7% -5.1%
Technology SELL 07/08/96 09/12/96 66 8.9% -2.3%
Technology BUY 09/13/96 03/27/97 195 20.5% 8.3%
Technology SELL 03/31/97 05/01/97 31 1.8% -10.7%
Technology BUY 05/02/97 10/24/97 175 31.1% 3.7%
Technology SELL 10/27/97 11/03/97 7 -3.4% -10.7%
Technology BUY 11/04/97 11/11/97 7 0.8% -10.9%
Technology SELL 11/12/97 01/30/98 79 5.8% -9.0%
Telecomm BUY 10/16/90 03/29/94 1261 132.0% 105.4%
Telecomm SELL 03/30/94 09/14/94 168 1.1% -9.4%
Telecomm BUY 09/15/94 04/24/97 951 32.4% 18.4%
Telecomm SELL 04/25/97 05/02/97 7 -1.0% -10.6%
Telecomm BUY 05/05/97 01/30/98 270 35.4% 35.4%
Transport BUY 10/16/90 01/30/98 2663 379.3% 352.7%
Utilities BUY 10/16/90 03/29/94 1261 64.8% 47.6%
Utilities SELL 03/30/94 06/21/95 448 2.0% -8.0%
Utilities BUY 06/22/95 01/30/98 952 67.6% 67.6%
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