www.toddmarketforecast.com

Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday February 1, 2012

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific. (TD DOW            
                                    + 84 on 1900 net advances

NASDAQ COMP                              +34 on 1300 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND                          Bearish (TD INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND   
    Bullish

Right now I feel pretty dumb. I went on a short term sell at yesterday's close
mainly because of an overbought condition and a resistance zone on the Dow that
is just above current levels. But good news from Europe caused many of those
bourses to move higher by 2% and more. German and English manufacturing
improved. Also, there was more optimism concerning Greece. Obviously that goosed
our markets. Our own economic numbers were a bit less than expected, but the
European improvement caused the euro to rally and the dollar to decline. As we
know, there continues to be an inverse relationship between our stock market and
the greenback. But there could be a change in the works. The greenback closed
down, but it was still higher than Monday's close (arrow). That, plus the
oversold condition could be a precursor to a dollar rebound. If that happens, it
will probably put pressure on the stock market. This indecision pattern should
clear up in a day or two. GOLD: Gold continues to move higher. This time with
help from the greenback. BONDS: Bonds got hit pretty good. Basically bonds are
waffling around near multi decade highs. THE REST: The dollar was down and that
helped gold, silver and copper to gains. Crude oil, however, managed a decline.

BOTTOM LINE: (TD (TD    Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there for now. System 7 traders are in cash.
Stay there for now.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The ADP employment index showed a gain of 170,000 jobs, a
bit less than the expected 172,000. The ISM manufacturing survey came in at
54.1, less than the consensus 54.7. On Thursday we get chain store sales and
jobless claims.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------ We’re on a sell for bonds as of December 21. (TD We’re on a sell for the
dollar and a buy for the euro as of January 18.

We’re on a buy for gold as of January 3.

We’re on a buy for silver as of January 3.

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of January 12.

We’re on a buy for copper as of  December 20

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the
U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.(TD



STEPHEN TODD

A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market
newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

News flash. Timer digest ranked us # 1 in gold timing for the year 2011.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications:
Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and
others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg,
Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British
Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

RANKED # 1      BY TIMER DIGEST

Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best
known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he
or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.

Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings
for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were ranked ranked # 1
for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. At the end of 2006 we
slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we were ranked # 5. Our bond timing was
ranked # 1 for 2007 and 2008. Gold timing was ranked #1 for 1997 and #2 for
2006. For 2010, we were ranked the # 4 long term stock market timer.

TODD MARKET FORECAST P.O. Box 4131 Crestline, CA 92325-4131

www.toddmarketforecast.com

e mail – toddmarketforecast@charter.net

phone 909 338 - 8354