We'll discuss in detail the new Intermediate-Term PMO BUY Signal on the SPY further down in the report. Let's look at OEF:
Mega-caps are doing well with a nice rising trend in place. The PMO does look a bit suspect as it flattens out, but it is still rising for now. The Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Index are above our bullish 50% threshold and both are above their signal lines so the IT and LT Biases are BULLISH. Participation has flattened out somewhat, but ultimately is at healthy levels. Notice it has been outperforming the SPY, more evidence that mega-caps are holding sway.
Below you can see the new IT PMO Crossover BUY Signal. We have a bullish "V" Bottom on the weekly chart that does imply we'll get a breakout to new all-time highs. The daily and weekly charts are bullish, but we wonder how much more steam it has.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on our YouTube channel here!
MARKET/SPX SECTOR/INDUSTRY GROUP INDEXES
Change Today: 
Change for the Week:
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/4/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY 10-Minute Chart: We had a nice breakout to start trading, but price never really moved higher from there. The 10-minute PMO has begun to decline along with Stochastics which does imply Monday may see a decline to start the day.
SPY Daily Chart: This week price overcame resistance at the May top. It hasn't moved that much higher. The PMO had topped yesterday, but today it saw a surge above the signal line (bottom above the signal line). The RSI is not overbought so more upside can be accommodated.
The VIX remains above its moving average and Stochastics are above 80 so there is still internal strength visible.
SPY Weekly Chart: We have a bullish "V" Bottom off the rising bottoms trendline. These patterns do imply a breakout above the left side of the "V". You can see the new weekly PMO Crossover BUY Signal which also tells us to look for all-time highs in the intermediate term.
New 52-Week Highs/Lows: New Highs expanded on the rally and we saw no New Lows which is bullish. The High-Low Differential seems to be accelerating higher now.
Climax Analysis: There were unanimous climax readings on the four relevant indicators today, giving us an upside exhaustion climax. SPX Total Volume was only 85% of the one-year daily average volume, indicating that confidence in the rally is waning.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) turned back up today. They look very indecisive so we aren't going to put much emphasis on this direction change. Still, it does bode well. Participation inched up and we saw a nice boost to %PMOs Rising.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
In an interesting turn of events, both the ITBM and ITVM turned up on today's rally. We did lose some PMO BUY Signals however.
_______
PARTICIPATION TABLES: The following tables summarize participation for the major market indexes and sectors. The 1-Week Change columns inject a dynamic aspect to the presentation. There are three groups: Major Market Indexes, Miscellaneous Industry Groups, and the 11 S&P 500 Sectors.
All IT Biases are now positive with the exception of Utilities (XLU). XLU has a strong foundation based on the Golden Cross Index, but it is starting to lose ground with the Silver Cross Index and that is causing the negative IT Bias.
Semiconductors (SMH) hold the highest IT Bias as they are making a big comeback after a period of depressed price action. We have strong near-term readings, but weaker longer-term readings and that is what is causing the high IT Bias number.
This table is sorted by SCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of intermediate-term participation.
Gold Miners (GDX) rocketed to the top of the SCI table. It gained a large 18 percentage points this week, putting all Gold Miners on Silver Crosses. We still like this area of the market.
Energy (XLE) has been depressed for some time. It is starting to make a move higher, but it hasn't registered on the Silver Cross Index yet.
This table is sorted by GCI values. This gives a clear picture of strongest to weakest index/sector in terms of long-term participation.
GDX not surprisingly has the highest GCI reading. It picked up more percentage points this week as the group continues to outperform. It may be due for a pullback, but given high SCI and GCI values, we expect to see higher prices.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in the intermediate and long terms.
Participation readings of stocks above key moving averages are showing declining trends which gives us negative divergences with price. This could pose a problem soon. The Silver Cross Index has turned back up which is bullish. It is holding above its signal line so the IT Bias is BULLISH. The Golden Cross Index continues to make its way higher and given we still have more stocks above their 200-day EMAs than those with Golden Crosses, the GCI should continue to make its way higher from here. It is above its signal line so the LT Bias remains BULLISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
*****************************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION: The indicators overall look good. STOs are indecisive right now but are technically rising again. The ITBM and ITVM both turned up for the first time in a while. The VIX, PMO and Stochastics are all rising and looking positive. However, we have some problems developing. The first is today's upside exhaustion climax that implies that we have decline ahead. The 10-minute bar chart also suggested short-term weakness based on the 10-minute PMO and Stochastics. Volume was not as high as we would've expected on a strong rally. We have a feeling that market may be at a tipping point, at least in the very short term. At this point, we can probably ride it out since so many indicators are positive right now, but we would set stops to preserve gains in case we do get an overdue downturn.
Erin is 60% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
*****************************************************************************************************
CALENDAR
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Daily Chart: Bitcoin rallied strongly today, but it has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern that does tell us to expect more downside. The declining trend is still intact and the PMO is falling. Stochastics did tick upward on today's strong rally, but ultimately it is still in very negative territory.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart: Bitcoin's personality is a long flag pole type rally followed by some decline or high level consolidation. It looks like we are ready to experience some decline again. The weekly PMO is still technically rising, but it does look toppy.
BITCOIN ETFs
Today:
This Week:
INTEREST RATES
Yields are on the rise again with long-term yields holding in rising trends. They looked vulnerable this week, but it appears we are seeing a new push higher.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
As expected, we saw the bullish falling wedge resolve with a breakout. The rising trend is intact so we are looking for more upside. The PMO is behind this line of thinking as it turned back up. Stochastics have also turned back up.
10-Year Bond Yield Weekly Chart: At this point $TNX is in a sideways trading range. It does look as if it will make its way back to the top of the range to the 2024/2025 highs. The weekly PMO is rising on a Crossover BUY Signal.
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30-Yr)**
**We watch the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, because, for the most part, people buy homes based upon the maximum monthly payment they can afford. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment will carry a smaller mortgage amount, which shuts many buyers out of the market, and potential sellers will experience pressure to lower prices (to no effect so far).
--
This week the 30-Year Fixed Rate changed from 6.89 to 6.85.
Here is a 50-year chart for better perspective.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: We still have a rising trend on TLT, but yields are starting to look bullish again so we think this rally is near failure. The PMO has topped and the RSI is negative. Stochastics are still rising, but the PMO top beneath the zero line tells us lower prices are ahead.
We did pick out a bullish reverse head and shoulders on the 1-year chart, but just as price was confirming the pattern, it fell back down. This pattern will bust with a drop below the 'head' or May low. It isn't over for Bonds necessarily, but it does seem that upside will be limited if we do get some.
TLT Weekly Chart: We have a bearish head and shoulders on the TLT chart which tells us to expect a breakdown. The pattern won't confirm until we get a drop below the neckline. We are bearish on Bonds in the longer term. The weekly PMO is on a Crossover SELL Signal below the zero line. As noted earlier, yields and the 20-year yield in particular is holding a rising trend.
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar looks like it may've broken the short-term declining tops trendline. However, as part of the breakout, it also formed a bearish filled black candlestick as it closed below today's open. We still see weakness here. The PMO is flat beneath the zero line and that implies pure weakness. It also shows a Crossover SELL Signal today. Stochastics are rising so we could see an attempt at the longer-term declining tops trendline.
We're watching support at 27 as price makes its way lower.
UUP Weekly Chart: Price failed to hold above the rising bottoms trendline. Support at the 2022 high is also suspect. The weekly PMO is in decline below the zero line so we are expecting weakness not strength.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 12/23/2024
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: The Dollar was down but it did nothing to help Gold which was down heavily. We do see that overhead resistance is holding up. The PMO is back in decline, but ultimately it is flat above the zero line and that still implies strength. The Dollar may inch higher here and that will likely push Gold even lower. We are still very bullish on Gold, we just see this period of consolidation holding.
The declining trend channel is essentially intact. It forms a flag on a flagpole which is very bullish.
GLD Weekly Chart: We still see a parabolic advance on Gold. These do beg for correction, but we still see Gold as very bullish. We do see that price has begun to move sideways and that could bring it out of this parabola. The weekly PMO did top this week so we will look for more sideways movement in the intermediate term.
GOLD MINERS Daily Chart: Gold Miners hit resistance and are now pulling back. We often say that things get as good as they can get just before they get as bad as they can get. Gold Miners had gotten as good as you can get. Yesterday we had not only the Silver Cross Index at 100%, but participation of stocks above key moving averages were also at 100%. We seeing some deterioration right now. Gold looks like it will consolidate sideways or possibly decline in the short term and that will put pressure on Gold Miners. It may be time to take the money and run so as not to get caught up in a heavy pullback.
GDX Weekly Chart: We have a near vertical rally on Gold Miners. They definitely are seeing a parabolic advance. It may be time for them to cool or at least go back and test the rising bottoms trendline. The weekly PMO is still on the rise, but that long wick on the OHLC bar does look bearish.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/27/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 3/31/2025
USO Daily Chart: Crude Oil is finally breaking out, but it is already up against the longer-term declining tops trendline and the 200-day EMA. It does look like we'll see a breakout there given the PMO is back in positive territory and Stochastics are rising above 80. This is the best its looked in some time. Demand should be picking up soon and that could keep it elevated.
The bullish double bottom has finally been confirmed with this breakout.
USO/$WTIC Weekly Chart: Crude is in a long-term trading range that we don't think will disappear anytime soon. This does look like a good rally. Price did not have to go all the way down to support before turning back up and that is positive. The weekly PMO is back to rising again as well. It is still below the zero line so it may take some time to move back up.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.
NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
DecisionPoint Alert Chart List
DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List
DecisionPoint Sector Chart List
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)